Miami Condo Sales Plummet 19 Percent Annually in Q3, Yet Prices Increased

According to the Miami Association of Realtors latest housing market data for the third quarter of 2016, overall single-family sales decreased 6.8 percent year-over-year, from 3,685 to 3,433. Existing condo sales — which are competing with a robust new construction market — decreased 19.1 percent year-over-year, from 4,101 transactions to 3,318.

Yet, mid-market Miami single-family homes posted increased sales in the third quarter as 17 Miami neighborhoods registered year-over-year home sales gains and median prices rose for the 19th consecutive quarter.

Miami-Dade County single-family homes in the mid-market — the $200,000 to $600,000 sector — had a 10.3 percent increase in sales in 3Q 2016, rising from 2,098 to 2,314. Gladeview (90.9 percent increase in sales), Coral Terrace (43.8 percent) and the City of Hialeah Gardens (80.0 percent) posted the highest single-family home sale gains among Miami neighborhoods in 3Q 2016.

“Demand for Miami real estate remains high,” said Mark Sadek, the 2016 MIAMI Chairman of the Board. “Miami has evolved from a beach town to one of the world’s most dynamic global cities. Homebuyers throughout the United States and the world are relocating their families here because of our exciting lifestyle, warm weather, diversified economy, quality schools and multicultural society.”

Home Sales Rise in 17 Miami Neighborhoods

The following Miami-Dade County municipalities and Census-designated places experienced higher year-over-year single-family home sales in 3Q 2016:

● Bay Harbour Islands (300 percent increase in sales)
● Brownsville (39.1 percent)
● Coral Terrace (43.8 percent)
● Country Club (3.8 percent)
● Fountainbleau (23.1 percent)
● Gladeview (90.9 percent)
● Hialeah Gardens (80.0 percent)
● Homestead (0.6 percent)
● Miami Lakes (9.8 percent)
● Miami Springs (3.2 percent)
● Olympia Heights (31.8 percent)
● Pinewood (10.0 percent)
● Sweetwater (25.0 percent)
● Tamiami (3.1 percent)
● The Crossings (38.7 percent)
● Westchester (2.5 percent)
● Westwood Lakes (11.1 percent)

The increase of Bay Harbour Islands, located north of Miami Beach and near the coast, was based on a small sample size (four sales). The next top performing neighborhoods boast mid-market prices: Gladeview (median sale price of $90,000), Hialeah Gardens ($267,500) and Coral Terrace ($349,500).

West Miami single-family home sales performed well, according to the 3Q 2016 data. The West Miami neighborhoods of Coral Terrace, Westchester, Fountainbleau, Sweetwater, Tamiami, Westwood Lakes, Olympia Heights and the Crossings each had higher year-over-year sales in 3Q 2016.

Total Sales Decline but Remain in Line with Historical Averages

Total existing Miami-Dade County residential sales — which posted a record year in 2013 and near record years in 2014 and 2015 — decreased 15.3 percent year-over-year from 7,786 to 6,751.

Total sales volume accounted for $2.7 billion in 3Q 2016, a 10 percent decrease from the $3 billion sales volume a year ago. The sales do not include Miami’s multi-billion dollar new construction condo market.

Inventory shortage for properties priced below $300,000 continues to impact sales. Distressed sales comprise a smaller part of today’s market.

Total Miami distressed sales have declined 46.5 percent year-over-year, from 1,979 transactions in 3Q 2015 to 1,061 in 3Q 2016. Only 15.7 percent of all closed residential sales in Miami were distressed in 3Q 2016, including REO (bank-owned properties) and short sales, compared to 25.4 percent in 3Q 2015. In 2009, distressed sales comprised nearly 70 percent of Miami sales.

Short sales and REOs accounted for 3.1 and 12.6 percent, respectively, of total Miami sales in 3Q 2016. Short sale transactions dropped 47.8 percent year-over-year while REOs fell 46.0 percent.

Miami Median Prices for Single-Family Homes, Condos Climb in 3Q

The median price for single-family homes in Miami-Dade County increased to $300,000 in the third quarter, a 9.8 percent jump from $273,200 in the same period last year. The median price for existing condominiums increased 8.9 percent year-over-year from $199,350 to $217,000. Miami-Dade County has now seen 19 consecutive quarters of price growth for single-family homes and condominiums.

Despite the rise in prices, Miami prices remain at 2005 levels.

Nationally, the median existing single-family home price in the third quarter was $240,900, which is up 5.2 percent from the third quarter of 2015 ($228,900), according to NAR. The national median existing-condo price was $225,100 in the third quarter, up 4.6 percent from the third quarter of 2015 ($215,200).

Statewide, the median sales price for single-family existing homes in 3Q 2016 was $224,900, up 12.5 percent from the same time a year ago, according to Florida Realtors. The Florida median price for condos during the quarter was $160,000, up 6.7 percent over the year-ago figure.

National, State Residential Sales in 3Q

Nationally, total existing-home sales for single-family and condominiums slid 2.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.38 million in the third quarter from 5.50 million in the second quarter of this year, and are 0.4 percent lower than the 5.40 million pace during the third quarter of 2015, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Statewide, closed sales of existing single-family homes totaled 71,857 in 3Q 2016, almost the same level (down 0.4 percent) as during 3Q 2015, according to Florida Realtors. Florida’s townhome-condo market totaled 27,236 during 3Q 2016, down 4.3 percent compared to 3Q 2015

Miami Total Active Listings Rise in 3Q

Seller confidence in Miami’s housing market continues to expand. Miami real estate had 20,475 active listings in the third quarter, a 16.3 percent increase from the 17,604 listings at the same time last year.

The inventory for single-family homes increased 8.0 percent, from 5,894 to 6,368. Miami existing condo inventory grew 20.5 percent, from 11,710 to 14,107.

The Miami single-family home sector is in a seller’s market, while existing condos are in a buyer’s market. At the current sales pace, the number of active listings represents 5.8 months of inventory for single-family homes and 11.9 for condominiums. A balanced market between buyers and sellers offers between six and nine months of supply inventory.

Miami Existing Homes, Condos Selling Faster

The median time to contract for single-family home listings was 45 days, a 10.0 percent decrease from 50 days in 3Q 2015. The median time to contract for existing condos was 72 days, a 4.0 percent decrease from 75 days in 3Q 2015.

The median time to sale for single-family homes decreased 3.8 percent, from 104 days to 100. The median time to sale for existing condos increased 2.5 percent, from 122 days to 125.

The median percent of original list price received was 95.8 percent for single-family homes and 93.9 percent for condos in 3Q 2016.

Miami Cash Sales Double National Average

Cash sales represented 42.1 percent of Miami closed sales in the third quarter of 2016. About 21 percent of U.S. home properties are made in cash, according to the latest NAR statistics.

Cash sales accounted for 57.2 percent of all Miami existing condo sales and 27.4 percent of single-family transactions. The high percentage of cash buyers reflects Miami’s top position as the preeminent American real estate market for foreign buyers, who tend to purchase with all cash.

Mortgage interest rates are at historic lows, making buying a home more affordable. According to Freddie Mac, the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.45 percent for 3Q 2016, significantly lower than the 3.95 percent average recorded during the same quarter a year earlier.

By Michael Gerrity, World Property Journal

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